.Remember these picks are strictly for fun and entertainment

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.Remember these picks are strictly for fun and entertainment

Messagepar panxing18 » Lun 11 Fév 2019, 11:21

Week 11 was rough Phil McConkey Color Rush Jersey , but one Thanksgiving miracle got these picks back to .500 with 10 wins. The goal continues to be finish the season above .500, so we’ve basically got a clean slate with five weeks to go purposes and please for your sake do not take these picks as gambling advice. Lines used here come from the Westgate Las Vegas via OddsShark. Home team in CAPS.Note: as of this writing the Westgate Las Vegas did not have a line for Giants/Bears because of the quarterback situation in Chicago. It looks like it’ll be Bears by 4 or 4.5 based on other books. Either way, it’s going to be a pick for the Bears.New Orleans (-7.5) over DALLASThe Saints are going to put up points — they’ve put up fewer than 30 points just twice — and the Cowboys offense just isn’t good enough to keep up. Dallas is 24th in offensive DVOA and that only goes up to 23rd in weighted DVOA, which puts more value in recent games. New Orleans has also improved on defense in recent weeks — 14th in DVOA and 10th in weighted DVOA on that side of the ball. The pass defense has been slowly coming along, but the run defense has been there all season — third in DVOA — which isn’t good for a Dallas team that wants to run through Ezekiel Elliott.[Update: Whelp, 0-1 for the week.]Cleveland (+5.5) over HOUSTONOver the past three weeks, Baker Mayfield has put up QBRs of 63.5, 97.1, and 96.7. Those are on a scale up to 100. The Browns have figured something out on offense, but the Houston defense will definitely be the biggest test of the Mayfield/Freddie Kitchens era. The Texans are fourth in defensive DVOA but much better against the run (second) than the pass (14th). Cleveland is the opposite, which could allow them to hang with the Texans — eighth in defensive DVOA and better against the pass (fourth) than the run (25th).Baltimore (+1) over ATLANTAIn a vacuum, Lamar Jackson’s hasn’t played particularly well at quarterback with QBRs of 36.2 and 35.7 in his two starts. But what he brings to the offense has opened more things up for the Ravens as he continues to develop as a quarterback. Atlanta’s defense was supposed to be one with speed at could match up with an offense like this, but it hasn’t been the case, even if Deion Jones is healthy. The Baltimore defense is also one of the best units in the league, which could be trouble for the Atlanta offense.TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over CarolinaCarolina’s defense is not what it used to be and that’s not ideal going against a Tampa Bay offense that will throw down the field and score points at will (and also turn it over on occasion). This is likely to be some kind of shootout with two good offenses and two bad defenses, so in that situation, we’ll take the points.Buffalo (+4.5) over MIAMIRemember in like Week 3 when everyone thought Miami might be good? That was fun. Since then the defense has plummeted from a potential top-five unit to 21st in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has been great all season — second in DVOA — and is the reason Buffalo has been able to hang in some games. The offense has also improved from historically bad to just run-of-the-mill bad, which also helps.Denver (-5) over CINCINNATIRight now the Broncos are an actual good team. They’re sixth in overall DVOA, which is above playoff-bound teams like Pittsburgh, New England, and Houston, but have just a 25.2 percent chance at the playoffs per Football Outsiders. Still, they can continue playing well, especially against a team that’s going to start Jeff Driskel at quarterback on Sunday.Rams (-10) over DETROITThe Rams are very good and the Lions are very bad. I want to go deeper in the analysis here, but I’m not really sure it’s necessary.Indianapolis (-4) over JACKSONVILLEIndianapolis continues to play well over the past few weeks, even if it was more difficult to beat the Dolphins than it should have been. Jacksonville will replace Blake Bortles with Cody Kessler, but the most surprising thing is the fall of the defense, which has dropped to just above average instead of league-best. Kansas City (-15) over OAKLANDThe Raiders rank 30th against the pass by DVOA and 30th against the run, 32nd covering tight ends, and 23rd against running backs in the passing game. They’re also 32nd in pressure rate. That’s not a formula to stop the Chiefs offense. TENNESSEE (-7.5) over JetsThe Jets are 30th in offensive DVOA this season and that’s just hard to overcome, especially when the defense has just been ok as of late instead of the above average unit it was early in the season. I will stop trying to figure out what Tennessee is, so I’m just going to base this on the Jets being bad.NEW ENGLAND (-5) over MinnesotaRob Gronkowski should be back on the field for the Patriots and the Vikings are 27th in DVOA against tight ends. New England continues to have a myriad of ways the offense can beat a defense, even as the Vikings defense has played well lately. The Patriots might also have one cornerback who can slow down Adam Thielen. Stephon Gilmore ranks fourth in yards allowed per pass and fourth in success rate among 69 qualified cornerbacks per Football Outsiders.SEATTLE (-9.5) over San FranciscoSeattle is third in the amount of play-action run this season and they are fourth in yards per pass on play-action. It’s a place where Russell Wilson excels and the Seahawks are finally getting into a groove there. San Francisco’s defense is 28th in yards allowed per pass on play-action this season. The Seahawks don’t have the Legion of Boom defense anymore Andrew Adams Color Rush Jersey , but the unit still ranks 11th in DVOA, which should be more than enough against the San Francisco offense.Chargers (+3.5) over PITTSBURGHThe Chargers are one of the best teams in football right now, even with the loss to the Broncos two weeks ago (Denver is a good team). There are endless ways the offense can win, even without Melvin Gordon. Even with more name recognition on the Steelers offense, the Chargers should have the advantage if this becomes a shootout. Los Angeles is third in big play rate on offense while the Steelers are just 23rd.PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over WashingtonNeither of these teams is any good. The Eagles didn’t really dominate the Giants at any point and Washington left a lot to be desired on Thanksgiving. At this point, the Eagles might be closer to figuring something out at home while Washington still tries to compete with Colt McCoy. One or both of these teams could be leading the NFC East after this game. Fun.Last week: 10-5Season: 85-85-6 By the time every NFL team has played eight games, there are some heavily established favorites for The Associated Press NFL awards that are handed out on Super Bowl eve.Not this year.MVP? Lots of candidates — and not just quarterbacks.Coach of the Year? Nearly every division has a contender.Comeback Player? Some likely Hall of Famers are in the mix there.So the AP polled a few of the 50 voters for the awards, including genuine Hall of Famer James Lofton. The theme was clear: There isn’t much clarity as we head into the final eight weeks of the schedule.MVPThis honor has gone to a quarterback the past five seasons and 10 of 11. Two running backs, Adrian Peterson in 2012 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, broke through the QB domination in the past dozen years.Lofton and some others select Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.“So good you just can’t take your eyes off of him,” the CBS analyst says.“Maybe this opinion changes next week, given the stellar competition that includes (Todd) Gurley and (Drew) Brees,” adds USA Today’s Jarrett Bell. “Maybe not, as the kid keeps showing up. A first-year starter as quarterback? Hey, Mahomes is like the new Kurt Warner.”Paul Domowitch of the Philadelphia Daily News opts for Brees. Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk prefers Gurley.Don’t forget about Tom Brady, Adam Thielen or Philip Rivers, and perhaps even a defensive force such as J.J. Watt.COACHAnother wide-open field headed by, according to Jenny Vrentas of Monday Morning Quarterback, Kansas City’s Andy Reid.“I selected Andy Reid … for his ability to seamlessly transition from Alex Smith to Mahomes,” Vrentas explains. “He’s been so invested in Mahomes’ development that he sits with him on the bench in between offensive series, going over what they see and how they’ll attack the opponent next. Reid has demonstrated an ability to keep his offense fresh and tailored to his players, updating his West Coast system with spread concepts pulled from the college ranks.”Bob Glauber of Newsday points to last year’s winner, Sean McVay of the Rams.“He’s one of the brightest minds in the game, and at 32, is proving not only to be a brilliant play caller, but an exceptional leader as well,” Glauber says.Not far behind in our little poll: the Saints’ Sean Payton, the Texans’ Bill O’Brien, the Bears‘ Matt Nagy, and the Chargers’ Anthony Lynn, whose team “plays a road game every week,” Lofton notes.COMEBACK PLAYERRarely has there been such an impressive group vying for an award no one really wants to win considering the implications of a comeback.From Watt to Peterson to Aaron Rodgers, from Andrew Luck to Carson Wentz to Deshaun Watson, from Odell Beckham Jr. to Richard Sherman — WOW!“It’s either Andrew Luck or Watt Wayne Gallman Color Rush Jersey ,” says Williams, “but Watt has returned to being one of the best at his position. He is playing at an All-Pro and Pro Bowl level. Luck is not one of the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL and maybe not in the top 10.”Eric Adelson of Yahoo Sports goes for the Colts quarterback.“Can’t imagine the frustration he’s faced,” Adelson says. “A pro’s pro.”Vrentas picks Watt.“The surgery Watt had last October to put his leg back together after a tibial plateau fracture was so complicated that the surgeons couldn’t even be certain that it would work, and that his leg would be able to bear the full weight of his body while running full speed,” she explains. “Watt, who has nine sacks in nine games, was undeterred. He wasn’t back to full strength in the season opener but has steadily gotten better each week, a scary thought for opponents.”OFFENSIVE PLAYERAnother free-for-all, with Gurley, Mahomes, Thielen, Brees, Michael Thomas and James Conner getting consideration.“Before it’s done, he could wind up as MVP,” Bell says of Gurley, his choice in this category. “Ditto for Brees. Running backs don’t get the same love as quarterbacks in the pass-centric environment of the NFL. But if Gurley breaks LaDainian Tomlinson’s single-season TD record and the Rams keep winning big, people will have to take notice. Then again, Brees has a few records and has never been MVP.”Domowitch, a Brees supporter for MVP, puts Mahomes here. So does Williams.DEFENSIVE PLAYERThis category could be a two-horse race between a pair of thoroughbreds previously honored with the award: Aaron Donald and Watt.“Now that’s a man who don’t need no stinking training camp,” Bell says of Donald.Eric Adelson of Yahoo Sports prefers Donald, as well.“A game wrecker on every down,” Adelson says.Adds Glauber: “Donald is a disruptive force in the middle and already has 10 sacks. The only problem for him — and the Rams — is that teams will often go to great lengths to shut him down. Thus, the constant double teams he has to fight through.”Lofton likes what Khalil Mack has done in Chicago: “Mack turned the Bears from pretenders to contenders.” But this train could be a runaway for Donald and Mack.OFFENSIVE ROOKIENo contest.“He’s the only good thing going for an awful Giants team,” Glauber says of Giants RB Saquon Barkley. “Until the Giants figure out their quarterback situation, he’ll be wasted in this offense.”But not lost in the awards prognostications.“On pace for more than 2,000 total yards — on a bad team,” Adelson notes.DEFENSIVE ROOKIEChargers safety Derwin James has gotten lots of love, but there’s no runaway leader.“Darius Leonard and Denzel Ward make this an interesting race for the award down the stretch,” Williams says.Glauber leans to Leonard: “Halfway through the season, he not only led all NFL rookies with 88 tackles, he led all NFL players in that category. He also has four sacks and three forced fumbles and has already won defensive rookie of the week honors twice.”
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